About that last post...

There’s nothing like actual events to expose the blithe theorising of so-called experts. Nine games into the Premier League season and the complacency I expressed in my last post looks downright naive. In my defence, I’m not the only one; it’s obvious that the club hierarchy didn’t see the Hornets’ disastrous start to the season coming either, or they would have made different choices in the transfer market over the summer.

In retrospect, the Pozzo regime’s habit of changing Head Coach every summer starts to make more sense. If nothing else, it gave everyone at the club a chance to reset the clock – forget about the disappointing end to the previous season and start again with a clean slate. Whereas it seems that Javi’s team just carried the woeful end to last season on into the Brighton game and beyond.

Wiser heads than me have debated at great length what’s gone wrong. I’d just like to highlight one aspect of Watford’s current stint in the Premier League that continues to bother me, and that may be part of the problem; the inability to integrate young players into the team.

When Quique took the Hornets into that first PL season in 2015, he’d quite deliberately been provided with a squad packed with experienced, battle-hardened players; new signings included Capoue, Britos, Holebas, Nyom, Behrami and Prödl. It worked, too; we didn’t ship too many goals, Iggy and Troy banged in the goals and we stayed up fairly comfortably.

Since then, it’s been much the same story. Four years on, Capoue, Holebas and Prödl are still here, four years older and starting to slow down (visibly, in Jose’s case). More importantly, very few younger players have been integrated into the first team. This only really hit home to me when I was reading the programme before the FA Cup Final and looking at the ages of the Watford team; only Will Hughes (24) and Gerard Deulofeu (25) were under the age of 28.

We have tried to use younger players from time to time, but it hasn’t really worked. Take 23-year-old Isaac Success; three years after his debut, he still looks like a work in progress. But he’s a rare exception, in that he has at least been selected for Premier League games. More often, talented young players are restricted to cup games and/or sent out on loan, rather than being trusted to play a role in the first team. I’m sure I’m not the only Watford fan who was sorry to see Ben Wilmot sent to Swansea, and as for Domingos Quina, there can’t be many Premier League clubs where such an obviously talented player would struggle even to get on the bench. And don’t get me started on Pontus Dahlberg, a goalkeeper who is highly rated by everyone who comes into contact with him, yet doesn’t even get to take part in the pre-match warm-ups. I’d love to know the plan for his development.

The impression the club gives right now is of one that is simply too scared to give youth its chance. The rapid turnover of Head Coaches doesn’t help; why should they take a risk on untested players when they know they won’t be here long enough to enjoy the fruits of the experiment?

I’m not suggesting for a moment that we should flood the first team with callow youngsters; merely that there’s no point signing talented young players if there’s no intention of giving them a chance to show what they can do – and that  an injection of youthful energy and ambition can be just what’s needed to buck up a struggling team. If any club’s history is proof of that, lord know it’s ours.

Celebrate good times, come on

After the bore-draw at Brighton a few weeks ago, I wrote that February’s games could define Watford’s season. Well, we’ve won all three games since, so I think it’s safe to say that, whatever happens from here on in, 2018-19 will go down as a good season.

Among other things, Friday’s rout at Cardiff means I can officially celebrate PLSD, and unprecedentedly early; in the past three seasons it’s taken Watford until at least mid-April to reach the magical 40-point mark, and last season it was early May. But this year, I doubt whether the idea of relegation has crossed anyone’s mind, with the possible exception of those journalists who doggedly refuse to pay attention to the way Watford have grown stronger each year, and who couldn’t see how we could possibly survive after selling Richarlison.

While I’m talking about previous posts, I should acknowledge that my stated opinion that Gerard Deulofeu really isn’t a striker and would be far better off playing on the wing looks a bit silly after Cardiff. My fault for doubting the wisdom of Javi.

Anyway, moving swiftly on… One thing I did notice, looking at the league table in the paper yesterday, is that those 40 points are evenly split between home and away. In fact, we’ve lost more games at home than we have away. That’s skewed slightly by the fact that we played five of the top six teams at home in the first half of the season, and the next few weeks may well put a dent in our away record. But I do think it’s indicative of the fact that we’re at our best when we have space to play, and at our worst when teams come to Vicarage Road intent on stopping us playing – the home games against Newcastle and Burnley spring to mind.

The next few matches should be interesting rather than season-defining. Liverpool away on Wednesday is a free hit, Leicester next Sunday will be interesting (not least because I’ve just seen this moment that Puel has gone), and then we’ve got two difficult trips to Manchester either side of the FA Cup quarter-final. Frankly, even if we only pick up a few points from the league games, I don’t care as long as we beat Palace. Like I say, this is already a good season – but when it comes to the cup, we’re now just three wins away from making this the greatest season in the club’s history.

Bored in Brighton

At the risk of sounding like a pundit, the month of February feels like it could define Watford’s season. Win the next three games and we will be ‘officially’ assured of Premier League status for another season and through to the FA Cup quarter-finals.

On the other hand, if we turn in three more performances like yesterday’s at Brighton, we’ll be out of the Cup and reduced to our usual late winter/early spring occupation of painfully inching towards that magic 40-point mark.

The Brighton game did feel like a throwback to the past few winters. Someone near me loudly suggested of the players that “they’re on the beach already”, and while I don’t believe that for a second, it was a worryingly lacklustre performance. Yes, Doucouré was missing, but we’re not really a one-man team, are we? Or perhaps we are; without him there was no forward thrust, no urgency, no cohesion.

Worse still, we couldn’t hold on to the ball; again and again, a Watford player ran into a cul-de-sac and was easily dispossessed, and we repeatedly lost the ball from our own throw-ins. Brighton were stronger and more direct, and probably deserved to win. It was lucky for us that their shooting was entertainingly wayward. And when they did get it right, Ben Foster was there to dig us out of trouble.

Of course, in the cold light of day (and having finally thawed out), there’s no reason to panic. After all, we came away with a point again a team with a solid home record. (Not that there’s any such thing as home advantage, of course.) But what is starting to irritate me is Javi’s refusal to drop players or make any changes to the team that aren’t forced by injury. This is a team where, with few exceptions, once you’re in, your place is guaranteed.

This wasn’t so much the case early in the season, when Javi tinkered with the strikers in particular, trying different variations on a one- and two-man attack. But since he settled on Deeney and Deulofeu as the front pair, that seems to be that – even though anyone with eyes to see can tell that Deulofeu, bless him, isn’t a natural striker, as the numerous one-on-ones he’s missed this season have demonstrated.

We all think we know better than the manager – and I’m no exception, so here goes: why not move Deulofeu out to the right wing (where he initially played when he joined us last year, with great success) and either (a) play Deeney on his own up front and move Will Hughes in behind him as an advanced midfielder, or (b) drop Hughes (who isn’t particularly convincing as a winger) and play Andre Gray alongside Deeney. Either of those options feels like it would produce a better balanced team that would be more likely to score goals.

But what do I know? Javi would doubtless point out that I don’t see the players in training, where Deulofeu’s dummies actually work (you know, that thing where, when the ball’s played towards him, he runs past his marker in the hope that the latter will take his eye off it, rather than actually competing for the ball) and Ken Sema is a worldbeater (rather than an honest trier who hasn’t got to grips with Premier League football yet).

So, a big month. We still have two possible routes into Europe, just about. But we’ve only won a single Premier League game since Christmas, and the draws are becoming increasingly frustrating. Next week’s game again you-know-who’s Everton would be a good place to start winning again.

Forwards in reverse

It seems churlish to complain, given how well the ’orns have been playing for the past couple of months (even if the results don’t reflect that), but there is one fact that stands out as we approach the halfway point of the Premier League season: our strikers aren’t scoring.

It wasn’t until I checked that I realised quite how serious the goal drought is. Troy has scored two in 12 starts, Andre Gray scored three in the first six games, but has barely played since, and Isaac Success has just scored the one Premier League goal – albeit a corker, finishing off a sublime training ground routine for the third against Huddersfield. The dates of their most recent goals are, respectively, September 2nd, September 22nd and October 27th. (By the way, I’m not counting Gerard Deulofeu as a striker here; he’s a winger who’s sometimes deployed in the middle of the pitch, which isn’t the same thing at all.)

It’s not as if they’re missing lots of chances, either. In the last couple of games, Troy had one against Everton where he got a toe to a tricky aerial pass (it was barely a half-chance), and against Cardiff there was that sliding attempt to reach a through ball that gave Neil Warnock a conniption fit. That’s about it.

In fact, the more I think about it, the more it seems that Javi Gracia is building a successful football team that isn’t designed to create chances for its strikers. Which is a bit odd, isn’t it?

I may be prejudiced here, as I was brought up on GT’s teams where everything revolved around supplying the ammunition for the centre-forwards. In their early-80s pomp, Barnes and Callaghan were tasked with providing the crosses for Blissett and Jenkins to convert, and the service was so good that they filled their boots. The wingers scored a fair few themselves as well, but that wasn’t their primary function.

Now look at the current Watford team. The modern equivalents of Barnes and Callaghan are Deulofeu and Pereyra (and Hughes, when fit), but you don’t often see them crossing to a striker. That’s partly because they’re hugely talented players who are more than capable of scoring themselves, as they’ve demonstrated. They’re also, let’s be honest, a bit selfish at times, trying to dribble round one more player, or curl the ball round the goalie from the edge of the area, rather than pass to a better-placed teammate.

Even when crosses do arrive in inviting areas, it’s rarely a striker who’s on the end of them. Unusually, both our goals against Everton came from crosses; the first found Bobby P, who was unlucky not to get the addition to the tally that his volley deserved, while the second was met by  Doucouré running in from deep.

So where does this leave Troy? It seems that his role in the team these days is mainly to keep opposing defenders occupied, thus creating more space for our creative midfielders. It’s a reasonable ploy; every Premier League manager knows that you can’t risk giving Troy too much space, so they’re going to allocate one of their stronger defenders to stick close to him. Still, it seems a shame that a player of Troy’s experience and expertise has been largely reduced to the role of a decoy, apart from his (admittedly important) role as the one who wins headers from goal kicks, or who holds up the ball and lays it off.

As a result of all this, most our goals this season have been spectacular efforts (narrowing down the shortlist for the goal of the season award is going to be a nightmare). But I can’t help wondering whether, if we could just create a few more chances for Troy (or Isaac, or Andre), we might have the opportunity to truly fulfil the potential of this remarkable squad of players.